HKSI notes中有一個關於 Futures例子
1) 例子的是買入與賣出期貨是什麼意思? 意思是不是今天Anne在期貨合約上約定在三個月後向合約的另一方借出以當日利息計算的HKD 1000000, 並會在未來X年X日歸還; 然後在三個月後, Anne 在另一張期貨合約中約定在未來X年X日借出當日利息計算的HKD 1000000?
2) 為什麼說 "the effective borrowing cost remains unchanged" ? 如果在三個月後, 息口暴升, Anne 在未來償還那筆錢也會大大提高, borrowing cost 還會 remains unchanged 嗎?
- 1 十年前最愛解答
You should know the concept of hedging --> risk management is the main purpose in this future transaction. In financial budgeting, we want to make sure everythihg is under control and cash flows follow our plans. We want to avoid unexpected losses or gains.
Say it is 1st Jan now, Anne has to borrow some money ($x) on 1st Apr. Since she does't know whether the interest rate will rise or drop in this 3 months, she wants lock the cost of borrowing (interest rate after 3 months) on 1st Jan. So she sells a future contract stating that she will provide a fixed interest rate for $x from 1st Apr to some time in futre.
Suppose the interest rate increases, Anne has to pay a higher interest when she borrows on 1st Apr, but the extra cost is offset by the profit from the future contract. So the net effect is the overall interest payout is still the same.
You may say that Anne will suffer a loss from the future contract if the interest rate drops. In fact the cost of her borrowing is reduced, and this reduced amount can be used to compensate the future loss. So the overall cost is exactly the same as what she planned in Jan.
Remember the future contract is used to lock the interest cost, instead of making profit(like what we do in equity market).
- FrancesTangLv 41 十年前
1. 首先你要明白, 買期貨並唔係真金白銀拎100%的錢出黎, 期貨有個特色係槓桿
好似呢個例子, 要對沖100萬元借貸的利息開支, 佢無須訂一份真金白銀俾100萬元的合約, 可能用10萬8萬已經做倒對沖
3. 假設俾10萬元買利率期貨, 去估將來利息會升
如果息升, 期貨會賺, 但你真正借果筆錢因為俾多左息, 因此會蝕
相反, 如果息跌, 期貨會蝕, 但借果筆錢付息少左, 結果又係打和
所以說, "the effective borrowing cost remains unchanged"
4. 而在買入期貨後, 三個月要賣出期貨, 原因係要平倉( "to offset the first contract")
試想像, 你三個月前買左個手袋, 到三個月後的今天, 你將個手袋賣返出去黎「平倉」
你無多到個手袋, 手袋賣貴左你就賺, 賣平左你就蝕, 平倉已經係埋單計數!!
5. 結果係, 透過對沖, 你可以鎖定利息成本
惟一你「蝕左」o既係, 你要俾錢出黎買期貨, 即係果10萬8萬元
不過, 對於當事人黎講, 唔對沖要多付的利息成本, 分分鐘多過呢10萬8萬
所以雖然要俾多少少錢, 但佢地都會冒險, 會選擇用期貨做對沖